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UK madness

Posted: Thu Apr 16, 2020 5:37pm
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Movingon

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The National Police Chiefs' Council (NPCC) and the College of Policing have issued a 3 page document attempting to clarify what constitutes a 'reasonable' excuse to be outside of the home, 

Some excerpts

"people are not allowed to buy paint and brushes "simply to redecorate a kitchen" but can purchase tools and supplies to repair a fence "damaged in recent bad weather".

Exercise guidelines

On exercise, the guidance lists driving to the countryside for a walk as "reasonable" if "far more time" is spent walking than driving.

But it adds that driving for a "prolonged period with only brief exercise" is not reasonable.

That would appear to indicate that someone who drove for an hour to a beauty spot for a two-hour walk would not be contravening the rules.

"police are advised not to intervene if people stop to rest or eat lunch while on a long walk, but short walks to sit on a park bench are not allowed

What a shambles and in the face of some 4500+ new infections today and as I write 861 deaths.

Feckin morons! 

Web Designer Guy

Posted: Thu Apr 16, 2020 8:47pm

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Posted: Thu Apr 16, 2020 8:47pm

What do you think would be better guidelines?

Herefordjack

Posted: Thu Apr 16, 2020 9:13pm

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Posted: Thu Apr 16, 2020 9:13pm

Web Designer Guy wrote on Thu Apr 16, 2020 8:47pm:

What do you think would be better guidelines?

The same lockdown conditions as Spain.

Web Designer Guy

Posted: Thu Apr 16, 2020 9:51pm

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Posted: Thu Apr 16, 2020 9:51pm

Herefordjack wrote on Thu Apr 16, 2020 9:13pm:

The same lockdown conditions as Spain.

Is that working out?

Actually, don't worry about answering, I've checked. 

Is a total lockdown working for Spain? Taking the numbers at face value... Yes. But, again taking the numbers at face value, no better than the UK's approach.

The UK is about two weeks behind Spain. New daily cases in Spain peaked about two weeks ago and flatten to about 8,000 per day. They're now decreasing, presently around the 4,000 a day with the odd blip.

The UK on the other hand, being two weeks behind, is now only starting to appear to peak, in terms of the graphs, and it's averaging about 5,000 a day. Roughly 3,000 less per day than Spain.

In terms of deaths. Spain is averaging 404 deaths per 1m population. The UK 202, weirdly exactly half that of Spain. You must, of course, take into account the countries are at different points in the death curve, as Spain is two weeks ahead of the UK. But, it's unlikely the UK will make up the slack. So, less deaths per capita in UK than Spain. A lot less.

Testing in each country is roughly the same per capita. So while discrepancies in testing can account for some anomalies, not enough to reflect the current numbers. This is before we start to factor in that Spain has 20% less population than the UK. The median age in Spain is higher than the UK, by 1.3yrs: UK 40yrs. Spain 41.3yrs, so not really enough to skew the stats.

So, to counter your assumption, that the approach Spain has taken is "better" than that of the UK, sorry, nope, the numbers say otherwise. To put it bluntly. You're wrong. Sorry. But there you go.

The real price for a total lockdown (Spain) Vs. a partial lockdown (UK) won't be known for a while yet. Once the effect each approach has had on mental health, I suspect you'll see huge differences there, and not in Spains favour.

The only thing that might make the total lockdown approach better is the risk of a 2nd wave, which is greatly reduced by a total lockdown. A partial lockdown means the virus can still spread, although very slowly, meaning it's still out there in strength, and a 2nd wave will kick in the moment everyone is back out. So as for which is the better approach longterm... No one know. Not you, me or the experts.

History though says that if a virus is allowed to come back for a 2nd wave, it's normally much more destructive than the first. Evident by the Spanish flu which came back, albeit mutated, and killed millions worldwide. Although it did have some help in spreading: The end of the war.

I should add I'm not saying this as some Union Jack flying Spain hating idiot. I'm just passing on what the numbers are saying. I'm not making this up.

So, back to the top... What is a (proven) better approach than the one the original poster says is moronic?

Oh, by the way, slightly off topic, but...

The real human cost of Covid-19 won't be fully understood for some time yet, most likely the end of the year at least. You see, we have to compare this quarters (April-June 2020) total deaths with those for the same period last year. Then we have to factor in any variations in the numbers for the third and forth quarters 2020.

What do I mean? At the moment 12k people have died and had cause of death written on the death cert as Covid-19. But how many of these were going to die this quarter anyway? We'll only know this once we get the totals and can compare year on year. 

Then, you need to see if the third and Forth quarters adjust accordingly. What do I mean? If the number of deaths April to June 2020 go up by 20k, do the numbers for July-Sept and Oct-Dec go down by the same amount? If so, what actually happened was those who were going to die in the 2nd half of the year died earlier, due to Covid-19. But, they were going to die anyway. 

Only when we get these stats can we begin to understand how many people Covid-19 really killed. Some are saying, looking at the limited data out at present, that the number of additional deaths over the average is actually not that much. So, it's possible that Covid-19 isn't killing many more than would have been dying anyway. Not sure I agree with that, but we'll know once the stats are available, next year.

And yes, sorry, very morbid post, I'm not attempting to lessen anyone grief, or make light of anyone dying, just analysing the stats in a somewhat detached way, as you have to if you want to make sense of all this.

Movingon

Posted: Fri Apr 17, 2020 7:05am

Movingon

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Posted: Fri Apr 17, 2020 7:05am

The numbers tell only part of the story.

Every single person who steps out in public poses a risk to themselves, and perhaps more importantly to other people, so it's vital that movement and social interaction are controlled and controlled in a way which does not create doubt, confusion, and scope for self serving interpretation.

Like most of us I have friends and loved ones back in UK so while I obviously hope for the best at the same time I fear that the the well intended but misguided approach can only worsen the situation.

Here is just one example of the sort of selfish and irresponsible behaviour which wouldn't be able to occur if proper restrictions were in place, there are many more. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/newsbeat-52281443

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Web Designer Guy

Posted: Fri Apr 17, 2020 8:17am

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Posted: Fri Apr 17, 2020 8:17am

Movingon wrote on Fri Apr 17, 2020 7:05am:

The numbers tell only part of the story.

Every single person who steps out in public poses a risk to themselves, and perhaps more importantly to other people, so it's vital that movement and social interaction are controlled and controlled in a way which does not create doubt, confusion, and scope for self serving interpretation....

...

Like most of us I have friends and loved ones back in UK so while I obviously hope for the best at the same time I fear that the the well intended but misguided approach can only worsen the situation.

Here is just one example of the sort of selfish and irresponsible behaviour which wouldn't be able to occur if proper restrictions were in place, there are many more. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/newsbeat-52281443

The numbers tell only part of the story.

I don't understand that comment at all! The numbers ARE the story! 

I fear that the the well intended but misguided approach can only worsen the situation.

A reasonable comment, but an unfounded fear. There is no reason to suspect your loved ones are any more or less at risk with the UK approach than they would be if the UK adopted the same approach as Spain. In fact, there is evidence suggests the opposite. Although it's a bit early to really make such a claim. 

If your loved ones are in the high-risk category, they should be self-isolating 100%, so the plonker in that (frankly pointless) anecdotal BBC story won't affect them. As for the validity of said plonker, I'd say it's dubious at best, although I don't doubt such people exist. But to imagine a stricter lockdown would change the habit of such people is fanciful at best, deluded at worst.

The full social impact of the approach taken by Spain, Italy and some other countries, ie. total lockdown, is unknown. There is no consideration for peoples mental health with such a move, and it's expected the human cost in this regard is going to be huge, longterm. The UK's approach is at least trying to mitigate this. Perhaps a partial lockdown (a la UK) will slow the stopping of the virus (there is no evidence to suggest this), but it could mean people come of this mentally less damaged.

The impact on the economy is lessened too by a partial shutdown, and the effects of a weaker economy for longer going forward will kill far more than the virus, long-term.

Going back to my first post on this thread... Should I assume though that what you are saying is that a better approach for the UK to take is a total lockdown? If so, were is the proof that this is a better approach?


Web Designer Guy

Posted: Fri Apr 17, 2020 8:29am

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Posted: Fri Apr 17, 2020 8:29am

Oh, this is interesting...

It seems the first reported case of Corona-virus (not Covid-19) occurred in Spain and the UK around the same time, although Spains new cases started to ramp up two weeks earlier, which begs the question... Why?

Sweden had their first reported case two weeks later, mid Feb, although their numbers started to ramp up about the same time as the UK. They don't have a lockdown, they are taking the herd immunity approach (which personally I think is the only way to deal with this, until a vaccine). So far they have about 130 deaths per million population. Nearly half that of the UK and a quarter that of Spain. The average age in Sweden is about the same as the Uk and Spain.

So, while it's really too early to say for sure, on the face of it, no lockdown is by far the safest way to go: Your loved ones have a 60% less chance of infection if there is no lockdown.

Again, not making this up, just interpreting the numbers. Although as I say, it's really too early to be sure. 

Dlrsantapola

Posted: Fri Apr 17, 2020 8:55am

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Posted: Fri Apr 17, 2020 8:55am

Web Designer Guy wrote on Thu Apr 16, 2020 9:51pm:

Is that working out?

Actually, don't worry about answering, I've checked. 

Is a total lockdown working for Spain? Taking the numbers at face value... Yes. But, again taking the numbers at face value, no better than the UK's approach.

The UK is about two weeks behind Spain. New daily cases in Spain peaked about two weeks ago and flatten to about 8,000 per day. They're now decreasing, presently around the 4,000 a day with the odd blip.

The UK on the other hand, being two weeks behind, is now only starting to appear to peak, in terms of the graphs, and it's averaging about 5,000 a day. Roughly 3,000 less per day than Spain.

In terms of deaths. Spain is averaging 404 deaths per 1m population. The UK 202, weirdly exactly half that of Spain. You must, of course, take into account the countries are at different points in the death curve, as Spain is two weeks ahead of the UK. But, it's unlikely the UK will make up the slack. So, less deaths per capita in UK than Spain. A lot less.

Testing in each country is roughly the same per capita. So while discrepancies in testing can account for some anomalies, not enough to reflect the current numbers. This is before we start to factor in that Spain has 20% less population than the UK. The median age in Spain is higher than the UK, by 1.3yrs: UK 40yrs. Spain 41.3yrs, so not really enough to skew the stats.

So, to counter your assumption, that the approach Spain has taken is "better" than that of the UK, sorry, nope, the numbers say otherwise. To put it bluntly. You're wrong. Sorry. But there you go.

The real price for a total lockdown (Spain) Vs. a partial lockdown (UK) won't be known for a while yet. Once the effect each approach has had on mental health, I suspect you'll see huge differences there, and not in Spains favour.

The only thing that might make the total lockdown approach better is the risk of a 2nd wave, which is greatly reduced by a total lockdown. A partial lockdown means the virus can still spread, although very slowly, meaning it's still out there in strength, and a 2nd wave will kick in the moment everyone is back out. So as for which is the better approach longterm... No one know. Not you, me or the experts.

History though says that if a virus is allowed to come back for a 2nd wave, it's normally much more destructive than the first. Evident by the Spanish flu which came back, albeit mutated, and killed millions worldwide. Although it did have some help in spreading: The end of the war.

I should add I'm not saying this as some Union Jack flying Spain hating idiot. I'm just passing on what the numbers are saying. I'm not making this up.

So, back to the top... What is a (proven) better approach than the one the original poster says is moronic?

Oh, by the way, slightly off topic, but...

The real human cost of Covid-19 won't be fully understood for some time yet, most likely the end of the year at least. You see, we have to compare this quarters (April-June 2020) total deaths with those for the same period last year. Then we have to factor in any variations in the numbers for the third and forth quarters 2020.

What do I mean? At the moment 12k people have died and had cause of death written on the death cert as Covid-19. But how many of these were going to die this quarter anyway? We'll only know this once we get the totals and can compare year on year. 

Then, you need to see if the third and Forth quarters adjust accordingly. What do I mean? If the number of deaths April to June 2020 go up by 20k, do the numbers for July-Sept and Oct-Dec go down by the same amount? If so, what actually happened was those who were going to die in the 2nd half of the year died earlier, due to Covid-19. But, they were going to die anyway. 

Only when we get these stats can we begin to understand how many people Covid-19 really killed. Some are saying, looking at the limited data out at present, that the number of additional deaths over the average is actually not that much. So, it's possible that Covid-19 isn't killing many more than would have been dying anyway. Not sure I agree with that, but we'll know once the stats are available, next year.

And yes, sorry, very morbid post, I'm not attempting to lessen anyone grief, or make light of anyone dying, just analysing the stats in a somewhat detached way, as you have to if you want to make sense of all this.

Excellent written post 

Web Designer Guy

Posted: Fri Apr 17, 2020 9:17am

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Posted: Fri Apr 17, 2020 9:17am

Thanks, but all I'm doing is taking the data we have and reading between the lines, looking for underlying trends, etc. Really, what the UK media should be doing. But instead, they are being cheap, lazy and opaque in their selective reporting, and being more interested in getting the next attention-grabbing headline than actually informing the general public.

If nothing else comes of this, I hope the media get the boot up the arse it needs. Previous to CV it'd sunk to some pretty piss-poor lows, but it's hit new ones with the general reporting of the virus. No journalist is doing anything even remotely investigative. Not even those outlets who normally don't follow the pack and play to the lowest common denominators.

I've stopped watching the daily briefings as the questions from the reporters are banal, repetitive and just ridiculous. 

I'm not a fan of the UK government, I'm a member of the Labour party! But, given everything, I think they are doing the best that can be expected in the circumstances. Like all governments, they acted too late, but sure as shite smells if they started to react sooner the media would've have ripped them apart anyway.

The government missed some real opportunities, but no more than any others and some of the alleged opportunities they missed just didn't exist...

Take PPE. The media are not reporting the real issue here: That for the last twenty years, the users of PPE (mentioning no names) drove PPE manufacturing abroad, mostly to China, putting local manufacturers out of business, in the pursuit of ever-cheaper prices. Production in China always slows at the start of the year due to the China new year, historically no-one stock-piled PPE beforehand, preferring instead to run stocks low and re-order once China gets back to work. Post CV PPE lead times were three months. By the time China was back from the new year close-down and CV had hit lead times were at six months plus: If you ordered PPE in Jan you would look to get it in Aug!

If the government looked to stockpile PPE in Dec 2019, it would still not have enough. This isn't incompetence, per se, it's just the by-product of industry constantly chasing cheaper prices. Who was at the front f this drive for cheaper prices? The biggest users. Who are the biggest users? The very ones who need It most now.

On the PPE front, post CV, manufacturing needs to shift back to the UK and certain organisations who drove it abroad need to accept they just have to pay more for it.

Will that happen? Course it won't.

Adofeegs

Posted: Fri Apr 17, 2020 10:17am

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Posted: Fri Apr 17, 2020 10:17am

I think the OP was rightly highlighting the complex absurdity of the UK lock down rules. The authorities in Spain have clear definitions negating grey areas making the enforcement easier. The argument about who got it right is for future history lessons. My money will be on New Zealand being up there. A structured four phase plan (currently phase four) that can be downgraded to suit the situation and escalated again if  neccessary. Add to that they seem to have a fair minded and liked PM who ensures she puts her people before all else.

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