Moving to Spain: what happens if the UK leaves the EU? - Page 16

Lovely ☺☺☺

So the date is set, 29th March '19. Brexit for the working class and everybody else. What has Theresa Maybe, Strong and Stable and her team got for the home team from the EU since Brexit in the talks ?  Oh yes, let me think ! I'm still thinking ! While I'm still thinking perhaps my old Spurs pal Brian can tell me where it's at for the home team on the Maybe side ? OMG is that a big black hole I see ? What was it before the snap election ? + 20 points for the Maybe team, and her looking for +60 points after the election. Then out of nowhere came the grey haired knight who has reduced it from +60 for Maybe to +17 in favour of the working class party. (is that not a 77 point loss for the Maybe team, the ones negotiating  for us over there). It's getting very, very late but perhaps all is not lost yet. Just check the bookies, Maybe is a beaten docket. Can Boris save us ? Ha, Ha, Ha, that was only a joke, can he save himself ?

Brennie

Brennie. Here it is.

First, I would give the same answers if Labour were in power and the Tories in opposition, other things being equal.

Brexit is now being portrayed by some as Government v Opposition. It was, of course, cross party up to the referendum, with leave and remain having support from both major parties.

The job of the Opposition is to oppose. It is much easier than the job of governing. Nonetheless,  I am still unclear what Labour's position is on Brexit. I think they want to be in the Single Market and the Customs Union but not in the EU. That would mean EEA / EFTA membership and maybe higher payments than previously. It would cause a lot of anger amongst those who support Brexit, especially as the the European Court of Justice would remain supreme. Effectively the Labour position seems to be to pretend to leave the EU but still be in it. As I stated - I do not know - this is a guess..Brexit is not just down to the UK government.  Corbyn has criticised the UK government throughout the process. He has not once criticised the EU. Of course that would be the case. He is in opposition. This is not a party political point. I have no doubt if the positions were reversed it would all be the same.

May made the wrong decision to hold the election (opinion polls eh?, but has still been able to form a minority government with the DUP confidence and supply agreement. Corbyn lost the election, even though it may seem from his speeches that he won it. What he won was consolidation of his own position in his own party. He also won what he wanted - a rise in popularity without actually having to govern. A perfect outcome for him and you have to admire what he has achieved.

In regard to governing, even with the support of all other parties Corbyn would not be able to form a majority government. In case someone does the arithmetic and thinks I am wrong, it is because of who actually takes their seats and who votes. If anyone wants to know what this means, just ask. There are lots of people able to supply the answer.

Points in opinion polls mean nothing, especially as there will be no GE until at least after Brexit.

Brexit is a negotiation. It is a process. The EU typically like everything wrapped up before revealing anything.

Nonetheless, and no surprise, the three areas that need to be resolved before a trade deal can be negotiated are the NI border, the future of EU nationals resident in the UK (and the divorce bill. BTW, you will have noticed I did not put 'the future of UK nationals resident in the EU'. I don't think there is that level of interest from the EU in that issue. The deals may not be reciprocal. 

As it is a negotiation, each side will talk tough and each side will show how wonderful and conciliatory they are. Is a trade deal likely? Who knows? I think it is in the interests of some major EU countries. That is not the same thing as being in the interests of the EU or being in the interests of EU officials (a completely different thing). Are EU officials capable of making irrational and baffling decisions (as others, like me, may see it)? Certainly!

24 October. “The commission is not negotiating in a hostile mood, Those who don’t want a deal, the no-dealers, they do not have friends in the commission. We want a fair deal and we want a fair deal with Britain. The no-deal is not our working assumption.” Jean-Claude Juncker.

The three items noted above will not be agreed singly, as each is a bargaining chip in the overall process. In addition, the trade deal, the final piece in the puzzle, is the ultimate bargaining chip. The EU, however, will only 'indicate' possibilities after the other three issues have been resolved. Nonetheless, if the three are resolved so they are happy, a trade deal that gives win win is more likely - for obvious reasons. I add my previous caveat about irrationality etc. We will not know the outcomes till we get the outcomes. As stated ad nauseum, the rest is speculation. 

The short version: Brexit is nothing to do with Labour / Tory. We would be in the same position if Labour were in government. The outcome? Have a guess.

Party political point scoring such as made by Brennie should lead to a warning from Jan imo. This is not a platform for it. This is a discussion about the implications from it on ex pats here. 

Steve

Hi Steve,

I agree with you saying political point scoring should not be in the forum. Sorry about that. On the other hand reality that effects our lives over here is important. Today the sixth round of Brexit talks are taking place. It is my opinion that there has been no progress made on the UK side since the talks began. Could you Steve explain to me what is going on in these talks or what is not going on. Who is representing our interest. Name those on our side with the best negotiating skills. Is there any good news for anyone out of the talks. Just simple questions on the implications that effect us all here and in the UK.

Thank you,    B 

Brennie, thanks for your reply. It was maybe a bit impolite of me to ask the ref for a yellow so apologies on that, but I really don't want to log into this for political point scoring or an update on Spurs progress in Europe! Nothing personal. 

As to who is our best negotiator,  who is doing what, I don't think anyone knows. We have to be patient now and wait to see what tumbles out. I see they have fixed a date and time for the fireworks, it would be nice to get a bit more detail on the impact for us. Could be worse though, we could be living in Cataluna! 

Cheers, Steve

Brennie.

> Could you Steve explain to me what is going on in these talks or what is not going on. 

This is frustrating and annoying. You asked me to explain the position. i spent considerable time dong that. Do you not believe me? Do you think my answers are inaccurate? Do you require multiple answers stating the same thing? What exactly do you want?

> Who is representing our interest?

What help would that be to you if you knew the answer?

> Name those on our side with the best negotiating skills. 

What help would that be to you if you knew the answer?

> Is there any good news for anyone out of the talks. 

I already answered that. Do you want a different answer?

What is it you actually want? You will not know the outcomes till they are announced. Nothing has been announced. You can follow the news just as anyone else can. Do you want a made-up answer that tells you with certainty what will happen? 

What do you actually want? If it is certainty you just have to wait - like everyone else.

Whether we like it or not, the UK has opted to Leave the club. Only my opinion but I think the 27 are going to want to set a deterrent example for anyone else who wants to tread the same path, so I'm expecting a hard Brexit. 

However, it's still possible that a deal that's bad for the UK could be a deal that's ok for ex pats. Fingers crossed, seatbelts fastened! 

Just to add, what she has announced (yesterday I think) is that she intends to amend the EU Withdrawal Bill to make (in law) the exit to be 23.00 on Friday 29 March 2019. As you state'The departure day was already set out in law, as exactly two years after the Article 50 notice period was triggered' (The Independent). e now know the departure time :>) 

Hola Steve, Brian, Kimmy,

The only thing I understand / reality from what you have replied is that Steve said Spurs are making progress in Europe. I'm not the brightest spark, so for me to know what is going on in the real world is what I hear with my own ears and what I see with my own eyes. You were right also Steve that we should cut out the political point scoring. So what would you think of the suggestion that we cut out propaganda. My questions were on what has been achieved in the talks and not on what was going to happen. The first three questions before the UK in the negotiations were, the border in Ireland, the movement of EU citizens in Europe and the most important one was ''la cuenta de divorcio'' So now lads, where has the progress been here ? Make it simple so I can understand. Brian, I was a bit slow in school but you bring back the memories of some of my teachers. Kimmy, I always hear what Mr. Davis says about progress, these are the times I wonder if my ears are working properly.

''Could be worse though, we could be living in Cataluna!'' O dear me Kimmy, take a good look at the flag of Valencia. These red stripes on the yellow backdrop are the same stripes of blood on the yellow wall that are on the flag of Catalunya.