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Climate Change

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Posted: Fri Aug 9, 2019 4:05pm
30 replies550 views7 members subscribed
Georgetheseventh

Posts: 48

Location: Catral

8 helpful posts

i would like to start a discussion on the subect of climate change and more specifically sea levels rising. I have a science background specialising in physics and math so its difficult to get one past me. I read the latest column in the CBN on this subject and made this reply, i dont like to see unsubstantiated claims without empirical evidence. What are your views, should i move up hill?

Hi Peter, regarding you CBN article on sea levels rising, or risen as most climate change experts continue to use...i remember very well some 60 years ago being taught fishing in the rivers and estuaries around the south of Scotland by my father who was in turn taught by his father in the 1930's and remembering where we could wade in the various seasons due to the strict rules on fly only due to water levels...imagine my surprise when recently...expecting flooding in my old haunts due to the plethora of reports...i found the exact same levels taking into acount the new distance to my knees since the fifties...and my fathers since the thirties...how can this be...was Archimedes wrong...does liquid no longer find its own level...do world manometers need to be re-calibrated...will it affect my dishwasher which applies the same principle to regulate its water level...please end my confusion..

Regards, George.


Villas

Villas

Very helpful member

Fri Aug 9, 2019 9:36pm

Posts: 1272

Location: Sax

703 helpful posts

Posted: Fri Aug 9, 2019 9:36pm

Georgetheseventh wrote on Fri Aug 9, 2019 4:05pm:

i would like to start a discussion on the subect of climate change and more specifically sea levels rising. I have a science background specialising in physics and math so its difficult to get one past me. I read the latest column in the CBN on this subject and made this reply, i dont like to see unsubstantiated claims without empirical evidence. What are your views, should i move up hill?

Hi Peter, regarding you CBN article on sea levels rising, or risen as most climate change experts continue to use...i remember very well some 60 years ago being taught fishing in the rivers and estuaries around the south of Scotland by my father who was in turn taught by his father in the 1930's and remembering where we could wade in the various seasons due to the strict rules on fly only due to water levels...imagine my surprise when recently...expecting flooding in my old haunts due to the plethora of reports...i found the exact same levels taking into acount the new distance to my knees since the fifties...and my fathers since the thirties...how can this be...was Archimedes wrong...does liquid no longer find its own level...do world manometers need to be re-calibrated...will it affect my dishwasher which applies the same principle to regulate its water level...please end my confusion..

Regards, George.


I will reply. After ( & I mean), with our (my!) short lives, having  no short Climate change  permanent alterations in geological, biological and historic information. You, & more ( on this forum) may help. Good question anybody? V

Kimmy11

Kimmy11

Super helpful member

Sat Aug 10, 2019 10:33am

Posts: 1456

1674 helpful posts

Posted: Sat Aug 10, 2019 10:33am

Hi George,

Without seeing the CBN article you refer to, it's difficult to understand, precisely, with what you're taking issue, although I appreciate that you're probably not allowed to replicate the article.  

That said, for the reasons explained in these articles from the National Ocean Sevice and NASA, I think that it would be difficult to provide empirical evidence for what are relatively small increases year on year.

This is why I believe that computer modelling, capturing historical data, is valid for monitoring change.  Arguably, it's less reliable for forecasting future changes, as there are so many variables that could affect possible interventions, but I do believe it's the best we currently have.

I deliberately chose these American references because they are globally recognised institutions.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/sealevel.html&ved=2ahUKEwjn9sjE3PfjAhV6AGMBHZEqDI0QFjAHegQIBBAB&usg=AOvVaw1s_jRcc5jr6NrALem8_UdO

https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/

As for moving to higher ground, I doubt that the low amplitude tides of the Med are likely to cause you any problems, not least because I note your inland location of Catral.  There are, however, a number of illegal builds on land in that area where the water table is high - hopefully, you're not one of them.

I'm assuming that, in your letter to the CBN, using your legs as the measure of water depth was somewhat tongue in cheek, but perhaps you could further the discussion by explaining what you believe would be valid empirical evidence?

Kind regards, 

Kim

RayD

RayD

Super helpful member

Sat Aug 10, 2019 12:25pm

Posts: 2642

Location: Catral

1805 helpful posts

Posted: Sat Aug 10, 2019 12:25pm

I would have expected your knee height to have risen since the '50s πŸ˜‰

Reminds me of an old friend who bought a pair of water skis and spent the rest of his life looking for a lake with a slope on it ...

Georgetheseventh

Georgetheseventh

Original Poster

Sat Aug 10, 2019 1:21pm

Posts: 48

Location: Catral

8 helpful posts

Posted: Sat Aug 10, 2019 1:21pm

Hey Kimmy...thanks for your interesting reply...my postulate is historical knowledge of water levels and how other places can have a higher level without affecting that datum...as you probably know the principle of a u tube manometer is it will show equal levels no matter what water you add or how you tilt them...ergo if the Vietnamese are getting soggy then so are the Scots...i'm sure we are all acquainted with the previous attempts to use max and min regression points to bias a result when that college, i think it was East Anglia or such, were caught out and admitted it....i think it is well known among users of statistics that one can use them to say virtually anything...thanks for your observations on Catral and indeed there are many hookey properties but my 10k sq m plot and habitation cert guarantee my legality...anything under that size is suspect but cheap to buy...and my knees are safe also as we have an underbuild crawl space...so if i went back to my former area in Scotland and saw or rather didnt see terra firma that i used to then i would call my buddies in Thailand and see if their beach had dissapeared...if not then apply for research grant and apply for membership of the Royal Society based on my paper..cash or kudos....i believe there is a massive scam going on in the world and individuals and large companies are benefiting on the backs of the contributing public...i will study your links with those esteemed organisations...by the way did you see the latest blackouts which i predicted would happen with reliance on windmills...it happened sooner than i thought but i predict many more in the future..dig some coal...UK is made of it...but big business wants something else...

Georgetheseventh

Georgetheseventh

Original Poster

Sat Aug 10, 2019 1:38pm

Posts: 48

Location: Catral

8 helpful posts

Posted: Sat Aug 10, 2019 1:38pm

it has risen a lot more than the water levels on the fixed gauges on the rivers Ray....for generations fishermen and boats have used these as reference and we have not observed them getting any higher levels...so looks like another case of Al Gore's claims to me...thats the trouble with time...it catches up with you...global warming....oops its getting colder...ok rename to climate change...then ice is less...oops there is more which was measured and verified...ok but its thinner...i saw 2 photos of a port gauge which were more than 100 years apart and verified at the same tidal conditions and guess what...identical levels...so the charts on Kimmy's link and claims of increase i cannot believe...also the claims of different levels at different points on the planet...gravity is a bitch...but measurable...

Kimmy11

Kimmy11

Super helpful member

Sat Aug 10, 2019 3:42pm

Posts: 1456

1674 helpful posts

Posted: Sat Aug 10, 2019 3:42pm

Hi George,

I'm guessing that you'd find this article, from a right-wing, American public policy think tank, more supportive of your position:

https://www.heartland.org/news-opinion/news/data-indicate-theres-no-need-to-panic-about-rising-seas

But then, as you paraphrased, there are "Lies, damned lies and statistics" and even this article admits that sea levels have risen, whilst asserting that the computer-modelled forecasts are extreme.  (But don't look at who funds Heartland πŸ˜‰)

Kind regards,

Kim

Georgetheseventh

Georgetheseventh

Original Poster

Sat Aug 10, 2019 4:30pm

Posts: 48

Location: Catral

8 helpful posts

Posted: Sat Aug 10, 2019 4:30pm

interesting Kimmy... β€œthe highest quality coastal tide gauges from around the world show no evidence of acceleration since the 1920s.....imagine your paddling pond...pour water in one end...bigger pond...same...swimming pool...lake...sea...ocean...nice big blackout all over UK yesterday...reliance on windmills...low carbon answers...we're doomed...

Peter Rossa

Sat Aug 10, 2019 7:02pm

Posts: 62

Location: La Marina

6 helpful posts

Posted: Sat Aug 10, 2019 7:02pm

Maybe there is an ulterior motive behind trying to frighten people with claims the world is going to end because of "Global Warming". 

Georgetheseventh

Georgetheseventh

Original Poster

Sat Aug 10, 2019 9:48pm

Posts: 48

Location: Catral

8 helpful posts

Posted: Sat Aug 10, 2019 9:48pm

Defo some hidden agendas going on Peter...whats this buying carbon credits rubbish...they think you can tax away the supposed problem...they will have us all in the dark...just like yesterday in UK...only worse...nuclear is the future until we discover better...meanwhile UK is in hock to Russian gas...

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