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Interesting post

Posted: Sun May 10, 2020 10:12am
56 replies1572 views9 members subscribed
Ufatben

Ufatben

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I have been sent this information and whilst I feel there were mistakes on border control, PPE & testing, I thought it an interesting read

Saw this post and checked the facts !  

It all pretty much stacks up 

To everyone blaming the government for the Covid19 death toll surpassing that of Spain and France and calling them incompetent, bear this in mind:

 It is possible to change an argument in your favour with statistics even if they are not truly representative. Try looking at it logically and dispassionately.

If you look at the population levels of the 3 countries mentioned, the U.K. has the highest at around 70 million, compared to 66 million in France and 49 million in Spain.

 Then look at the size of the area these people are living in : The UK 250,000 km2, France 650,000 km2, Spain 506,000 km2. 

 Figured it out yet? No?

The U.K. has a population density of 280 people per km2

 France has a population density of 102 people per km2

 Spain has a population density of 97 people per km2

Know what that means? That means, ( according to figures from google today) the U.K., despite having nearly 3 times (275%) the population density of France and (289%) that of Spain, has death figures which are only 8% more than France and 7.5% more than Spain.

Villas

Posted: Sun May 10, 2020 10:50am

Villas

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Posted: Sun May 10, 2020 10:50am

Hi, I too looked at that. (I obviously take it "the government" you refer to UK.

 Two points: it is important to compare (as you rightly say). But more importantly, population saturation, statisticsirrelevant of country & their individual attitude (before & during the pandemic.)

More importantly, is not to apply too much regarding those, or any statistics, which, by virtue may be easily manipulated by attempting to prove one point or another.

A little tongue in cheek (on my part), but: 

Maths: Three percent exceeds two percent by one percent, yes?

……….NO!…..by 50% 

V

John 52

Posted: Sun May 10, 2020 11:06am

John 52

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Posted: Sun May 10, 2020 11:06am

Morning, try telling that to the people who have lost relatives ,friends and colleagues,,The facts speak for themselves  UK has the largest amount of deaths due to Covid 19 in Europe ,amen

Web Designer Guy

Posted: Sun May 10, 2020 11:25am

Web Designer Guy

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Posted: Sun May 10, 2020 11:25am

All the arguments about the numbers are utterly pointless until we see the number of additional deaths in the first and second half of this year. Only then can we begin to ascertain the number of additional deaths due to Covid-19. And before anyone mentions the number of additional deaths on a weekly basis, don't, again it's meaningless. We need to see the change over a much greater period of time than a week. 

In short, without getting in the human consequences, looking at this from a purely numbers POV, we need to establish how many additional deaths occurred in the full year, as opposed to the number of deaths that were bought forward due to Covid-19. Or, to put it another way: How many people who were not likely to die in 2020, died in 2020. That's your real number of fatalities. 

I realise this sounds cold-hearted, but it's just about being accurate with the true figures, which we won't know until next year.

As for comparing like-for-like with other countries, it's pointless. As the original poster said, there are so many factors involved, not least that most countries are manipulating the numbers to support their own agenda.

John 52

Posted: Sun May 10, 2020 11:46am

John 52

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Posted: Sun May 10, 2020 11:46am

Just like the conservative government manipulated the figures to achieve their 100000 target on testing ,a figure they havnt achieved  since ,I wonder why ?,watched Robert Jenrick on Andrew Marr again no admission of mistakes ,just countless excuses ,and justification of their wrong decisions

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Adofeegs

Posted: Sun May 10, 2020 12:08pm

Adofeegs

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Posted: Sun May 10, 2020 12:08pm

Hong Kong?

Toby1947

Posted: Sun May 10, 2020 3:05pm

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Posted: Sun May 10, 2020 3:05pm

Every death is a death too many but let us not forget the real culprits are the Chinese because they knew what was going on and they allowed flights from Wuhan to the rest of the world but they stopped flights from Wuhan to anywhere else in China. You would expect Beijing to be hard hit but it is not !  The UK has a large Chinese population and these Chinese went to their homeland for the Chinese New Year then returned carrying the virus. I am sure once the Covid-19 crisis dies down then a lot of soul-searching will be performed and a good thing too, the Covid-19 has a death rate of about 1% but what if the next awful disease from China has a death rate of 50% ??  What then ?  I want to see the UK develop the capability to quickly lockdown all means of entry be it land, sea or air and establish quarantine measures at points of entry to the UK, this is for our own good !

dinnerout

Posted: Sun May 10, 2020 3:38pm

dinnerout

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Posted: Sun May 10, 2020 3:38pm

Toby1947 wrote on Sun May 10, 2020 3:05pm:

Every death is a death too many but let us not forget the real culprits are the Chinese because they knew what was going on and they allowed flights from Wuhan to the rest of the world but they stopped flights from Wuhan to anywhere else in China. You would expect Beijing to be hard hit but it is...

... not !  The UK has a large Chinese population and these Chinese went to their homeland for the Chinese New Year then returned carrying the virus. I am sure once the Covid-19 crisis dies down then a lot of soul-searching will be performed and a good thing too, the Covid-19 has a death rate of about 1% but what if the next awful disease from China has a death rate of 50% ??  What then ?  I want to see the UK develop the capability to quickly lockdown all means of entry be it land, sea or air and establish quarantine measures at points of entry to the UK, this is for our own good !

So let me get this right - the Chinese are to blame for the poor handling of the crisis in the UK?

The Chinese are to blame for us stopping testing and tracing at the beginning of the outbreak?

The Chinese are to blame for the UK deciding on Herd Immunity then changing the policy when it became apparent that between 250,000 and 600,000 would die under that policy?

The Chinese are to blame for a lack of funding for the NHS which reduced IC capacity?

The Chinese are to blame for lack of UK preparation in terms of PPE and ventilators?

The Chinese are to blame for Cheltenham and football matches to go ahead while the virus was spreading in the UK?

The Chinese were to blame for the cavalier late decision to close pubs and restaurants?

The Chinese were to blame for overcrowding on the London Underground.?

The Chinese were to blame for a lockdown that wasn't really a lockdown at all?

The Chinese are to blame because no one in the government realised that care homes were unprepared?

They may be to blame for some disgusting medieval eating habits and the outbreak itself, but I don't think the Chinese can be blamed for 32,000 UK deaths and rising!

Toby1947

Posted: Sun May 10, 2020 6:51pm

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Posted: Sun May 10, 2020 6:51pm

dinnerout wrote on Sun May 10, 2020 3:38pm:

So let me get this right - the Chinese are to blame for the poor handling of the crisis in the UK?

The Chinese are to blame for us stopping testing and tracing at the beginning of the outbreak?

The Chinese are to blame for the UK deciding on Herd Immunity then changing the policy when it became apparent that between 250,000 and 600,000 would die under that policy?

The Chinese are to blame for a lack of funding for the NHS which reduced IC capacity?

The Chinese are to blame for lack of UK preparation in terms of PPE and ventilators?

The Chinese are to blame for Cheltenham and football matches to go ahead while the virus was spreading in the UK?

The Chinese were to blame for the cavalier late decision to close pubs and restaurants?

The Chinese were to blame for overcrowding on the London Underground.?

The Chinese were to blame for a lockdown that wasn't really a lockdown at all?

The Chinese are to blame because no one in the government realised that care homes were unprepared?

They may be to blame for some disgusting medieval eating habits and the outbreak itself, but I don't think the Chinese can be blamed for 32,000 UK deaths and rising!

You are missing the point which is if the Chinese had locked travel down as soon as they realised that there was a major problem then Covid-19 would NOT have spread worldwide.

I make no comment about the UK handling of the Pandemic, just the poor performance of the Chinese Government.

Villas

Posted: Sun May 10, 2020 7:22pm

Villas

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Posted: Sun May 10, 2020 7:22pm

Toby1947 wrote on Sun May 10, 2020 6:51pm:

You are missing the point which is if the Chinese had locked travel down as soon as they realised that there was a major problem then Covid-19 would NOT have spread worldwide.

I make no comment about the UK handling of the Pandemic, just the poor performance of the Chinese Government.

A pneumonia of unknown cause detected in Wuhan, China was first reported to the WHO Country Office in China on 31 December 2019.

On 11 February 2020, WHO announced a name for the new coronavirus disease: COVID-19.

No other comment about time lines.

Villas

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