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'Worse than 2008 crisis’: Spain heading for 8 percent economic slump and 20 percent jobless warns IMF

Posted: Wed Apr 15, 2020 6:12pm
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garylamata

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I think this will be a very serious problem for Spain given that they are just starting to recover from the 2008 meltdown that affected them almost more than anywhere else apart from Greece. I'd be interested in others' opinions as to how best Spain can recover - if they even have any options.

https://www.thelocal.es/20200414/worse-than-2008-crisis-spain-heading-for-8-percent-economic-slump-and-20percent-jobless-warns-imf

Kush

Posted: Wed Apr 15, 2020 6:56pm

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Posted: Wed Apr 15, 2020 6:56pm

garylamata wrote on Wed Apr 15, 2020 6:12pm:

I think this will be a very serious problem for Spain given that they are just starting to recover from the 2008 meltdown that affected them almost more than anywhere else apart from Greece. I'd be interested in others' opinions as to how best Spain can recover - if they even have any options.

https://www.thelocal.es/20200414/worse-than-2008-crisis-spain-heading-for-8-percent-economic-slump-and-20percent-jobless-warn...

I reckon this will be the case for the vast majority of nations it will undoubtedly be worse than 08 by the time its all over.

Kush

garylamata

Posted: Wed Apr 15, 2020 7:26pm

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Posted: Wed Apr 15, 2020 7:26pm

This post that was quoted has been deleted.

That's my take on it too. Yes even after restrictions are lifted people will still fear to socialise let alone travel and holiday One due to fear of reinfection and two due to the WW exonomic depression that's coming - most will simply not have the cash to do what they used to. I do fear Spain will be hardest hit due to their reliance on tourism.

garylamata

Posted: Wed Apr 15, 2020 7:35pm

garylamata

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Posted: Wed Apr 15, 2020 7:35pm

This post that was quoted has been deleted.

Well I am only quoting the IMF so don't shoot the messenger. What do the IMF know anyway what with their so-called expert economists and professors.

garylamata

Posted: Wed Apr 15, 2020 7:42pm

garylamata

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Posted: Wed Apr 15, 2020 7:42pm

Ray plerase also check the chart I included = from Eurostat. Spain is the MOST reliant on tourism not Greece. Hence the IMF's dire warning

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James1212

Posted: Wed Apr 15, 2020 8:09pm

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Posted: Wed Apr 15, 2020 8:09pm

garylamata wrote on Wed Apr 15, 2020 7:35pm:

Well I am only quoting the IMF so don't shoot the messenger. What do the IMF know anyway what with their so-called expert economists and professors.

I’m afraid you’ve misinterpreted the chart, Gary. It lists number of tourist beds booked in each country, but does not indicate relative dependence on tourism. Some countries will have many other sources of income, while others may be more dependent on tourism only. 

garylamata

Posted: Wed Apr 15, 2020 8:15pm

garylamata

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Posted: Wed Apr 15, 2020 8:15pm

James1212 wrote on Wed Apr 15, 2020 8:09pm:

I’m afraid you’ve misinterpreted the chart, Gary. It lists number of tourist beds booked in each country, but does not indicate relative dependence on tourism. Some countries will have many other sources of income, while others may be more dependent on tourism only. 

Regardless, it still shows Spain will, as they were in 2008, be hardest hit in any world economic downturn. I get that they diversify in agriculture and manufacturing but apart from Seat, the only thing I have Made In Spain is an old fan heater that was left here when I bought the apartment and an iron I bought in Guardamar flea market. This year also Spanish produce is rotting in the fields due to the lack of itenerant workers

garylamata

Posted: Wed Apr 15, 2020 8:38pm

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Posted: Wed Apr 15, 2020 8:38pm

This post that was quoted has been deleted.

I think the chart was included in the IMF report as one of the first things to go by the wayside during economic stress is travel. Manufacturing, by and large, can adapt and continue as can and must the services industry AKA the UK. I can't see the finance industry going anywhere in the short to mid-term.France is the only EU country currently self-sufficient so perhaps a lot could be learned from the French system

garylamata

Posted: Wed Apr 15, 2020 8:38pm

garylamata

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Posted: Wed Apr 15, 2020 8:38pm

This post that was quoted has been deleted.

I think the chart was included in the IMF report as one of the first things to go by the wayside during economic stress is travel. Manufacturing, by and large, can adapt and continue as can and must the services industry AKA the UK. I can't see the finance industry going anywhere in the short to mid-term.France is the only EU country currently self-sufficient so perhaps a lot could be learned from the French system

Lancelot

Posted: Wed Apr 15, 2020 8:42pm

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Posted: Wed Apr 15, 2020 8:42pm

I think it will be bad in a number of countries. If Spain loses a summer season, which looks likely, then many who depend upon this income won't see it. It's very troubling.

As restrictions start to be lifted over Europe it does look at if; mass gatherings/ bars/ restaurants/ Beaches will be the last to see a return to normality. 

So whilst we might see some cross border travel it's likely it won't be the millions of tourists who would normally be packing their bags and spending their money.

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