Posted: Tue Apr 28, 2020 12:51pm
If the government want it, the pandemic has given them the perfect opportunity to extend without losing face. But that assumes they want to extend. If agreements on trade are not settled by 31.12 and we crash out without a deal it will be very clear that No Deal was always on the agenda, which given the current position would be cavalier in the extreme.
I have a hunch that despite his primary instinct not to, that Johnson may well extend because of the economic damage Covid has done to the economy.
A no deal economic meltdown on top of covid meltdown could see the country devastated, and an early GE, certainly earlier than the Conservatives would have anticipated, and if there was mass unemployment and deprivation, it wouldn't be a given that they would win it, something that a few weeks ago was unthinkable.
So I think the odds on an extension are 60/40 right now. Maybe higher.
Just thoughts, not necessarily predictions!
Steve