Is the UK now leading Spain?

I can’t open the link, but I wouldn’t frame it as one country “leading” another, unless you’re talking about some kind of innovative leadership. I haven’t seen much of that from the U.K., although fortunately the numbers there have improved somewhat of late. 

I didn't, at least not intentionally? My comparison to the UK was only regarding the strictness of the respective lockdowns. 

The UK were slow to lockdown and as a result have the highest deaths in Europe. Spain reacted much more decisively and appeared to prevent so as deaths. My question was, why is the situation in Spain now deteriorating so rapidly after such stringent action to curtail it?

The link is to a Guardian piece from the Spainish health minister (try this)

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/14/spain-coronavirus-new-cases

Hi Cookep1,

      your post seem to imply some kind of contest, I suspect it's just a provocative statement to stimulate discussion? 

  So here is my thoughts - Spain has had a lockdown which severely restricted peoples movement and, from the posts I have seen on this forum, was generally well received by the people in lockdown. The UK had a less restrictive lockdown which was thought to be too lax. After several months we are now in a situation where the UK is requiring people arriving from Spain, France, Netherlands and a number of smaller countries to self isolate because their covid19 infection rates are significantly worse than we have in the UK. So it would appear that the severe lockdown in Spain was less effective than the supposedly lax lockdown in the UK,

   That is how it appears at the moment but I suspect it is far more complicated than stated above and it will take some time for the true picture to become apparent. Personally I would be happy with any approach that worked best, whether it be Spain's, the UK's or whoever as long as we could get back to life as normal as quickly as possible.

  As I have said in previous posts I think we have to start learning to live with covid19 and develop common procedures to minimise the risk of travelling between countries so that we can start to normalise our lives. For example I would like to see checks on people departing at airports as well as arriving, what is the point on turning up at your destination to be told you have a high temperature and you need to self isolate, better to be stopped at departure then you are not sitting on a plane for hours potentially infecting lots of other travellers. 

  A question back - what procedures have the EU proposed to stop the spread of covid19 across Europe? 

Rgds,

Aitch.

Thanks for the new link - I had seen that article alright. It exemplifies how quickly clusters develop and spread - we’ve had similar experiences recently in Ireland after a period of very low infection rates. All pretty grim, and demonstrates our ongoing vulnerability. 

Number of cases was guaranteed to increase now that restrictions have been relaxed, movement from not just other countries but from within Spain itself, people gathering in larger numbers and with the increase in temperatures more people going outside!

Good morning Aitch and thanks for the response (and everyone else's), which I agree with. 

In answer to your question I'm not sure Europe as a whole is in a position to agree a set of procedures for Covid-19. As d80gs said, most action such as national lockdowns require approval in national parliaments. In saying that, it should be possible to agree common procedures in area such as travel corridors, much as you have suggested.

personally I don't think any country will invoke a second national lockdown, the economic damage would be too great. Local lockdowns may become more prevelant, but track and trace information needs to be much better to enable them to be more targeted. Locking down an area the size of greater Manchester is almost as punitive as a national one.

Paul

As has been said, to compare the stats from these two countries is misleading. First, Spain, according to several media outlets and crucially not denied by the government (in fact, more or less supporting it), has vastly under-recorded COVID related deaths. It's likely 50% higher than the official stats. This is because the methodology used does not always paint an accurate picture.

Likewise, England, and perhaps Scotland and Wales too, have actually over-recorded deaths due to COVID due to their failure to limit the length of time needed between a positive test and death. When all is said and done the number of deaths in both countries is potentially very very similar.

In Spain, as in many countries, deaths are not tracking new infections in the same way they did at the start of the first wave. The reason given is this time around more younger people are being traced and tested and proving asymptomatic. And this is the key.

Spain has a good track and trace system. So people, who in the first wave would never have been tested are now being tested. Previously, you were only tested at the start if you showed symptoms. Therefore, the initial stats March/April/May were massively skewed.

England, on the other hand, doesn't have a creditable track and trace system. Therefore, they are finding fewer asymptomatic cases. Therefore, the new case stats are low(er) and the death/new case rates are more or less consistent.

So who is "leading"? Or, to rephrase that question: Where is safest? In my opinion, without a doubt, Spain. Yes, new case numbers are high, but only because thanks to a creditable track and trace system they are locating new cases. Death rates have remained low, QED: Spain is safer.

In England, for all the grand talk, they still don't have a working track and trace system, so we are still only seeing the tip of the COVID iceberg.

What is most interesting with the second wave of COVID is that now, thanks to track and trace systems, we are getting a much more accurate look at the infection to death rate, and it's tiny, or at least it appears to be far lower than initially thought.

If we start to see a big uptick in deaths in the next 20 days, that last statement will be proven to be wrong, but the indications are that COVID is killing a much smaller percentage of those infected than originally thought. Which is obviously a good thing. 

Good morning Busotbound,

Firstly let me apologise for the word "leading"in the title of this thread. I needed to keep it short and was intended more to lead to a discussion on which strategy is proving more effective in combating Covid-19.

On death rates, I ignore the government figures and look to the excess deaths as the more accurate and consistent data. 

On track & trace the UK system is a shambles as it is only tracing around 60% of contacts; far to low to be effective. Perhaps the new app which is said to be trialled soon will resolve this? I can't comment on the Spanish system as I've seen little about it. 

In either case, and on dealing with Covid-19 in general, the key is enforcement. In this the UK seems particularly lacking. Many decisions appear to be taken "on the hoof" with little thought given to delivery. Take quarantine: people returning from Spain, and now France, are required to self isolate for 14 days. Yet there is little evidence to indicate this is actually enforced, without which what's the point.

As Aitch said, I think this will be with us for some time si we need to learn the lessons and how to manage it.

Paul

Morning Ray,

The table below from the ECDC highlights the rising number of infections. The UK is currently imposing quarantine where numbers are above 20/100k of population; a number the UK itself is not far short of. 

I agree consistency of reporting is key, and that national figures don't highlight the localised nature of outbreaks, but Spains numbers are the 2nd worse at 110/100k and the government are clearly worried. Let's hope their efforts to control the spread are successful and those of us in the UK can get out to Spain soon!

Paul

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea