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UK Testing - Dont hold your breath - Page 3

wrypop

Posted: Tue Apr 21, 2020 4:38pm

wrypop

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Posts: 146

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Location: La Romana

Joined: 12 Jan 2017

Posted: Tue Apr 21, 2020 4:38pm

Kimmy11 wrote on Tue Apr 21, 2020 3:34pm:

What the figures tell us, Aitch, is that any one of those data sets, taken in isolation, can tell a different story (and, being humans, many will pick the set that best suits their argument).  However, my belief is that these figures only start to make sense when they're ALL built into a com...

...puter model; even then, they have to be constantly updated as they evolve.  Sophisticated algorithms are written to represent non-numercial data, i.e. processes (in this case, individual intervention strategies such as contact tracing, testing, isolation, etc.), so that the approaches taken by each country in managing the disease in their own geography can also be included in the model, for comparison. Even if we assumed that all the data by country on Worldometer is correct, it isn't sufficient information to say that the UK "is doing at least as well, if not better" than other countries, without computer modelling.

So, back to my original complaint about the UK government's approach to how they intially dealt with Covid-19: their "60% herd immunity" theory - it had nothing to do with these statistics.  It was based on assumptions about previous pandemics, even though, like the rest of the world, the UK government knew this was a "novel" coronavirus, something we had never seen before.  The WHO and countries ahead of the UK on the infection curve were saying, in particular Italy, "don't make the same mistake we did", yet they still persisted with their herd immunity theory and delayed taking the most effective action, i.e. lockdown, until computer modelling proved their initial approach to be flawed.

I'm sorry, I know this isn't what you want to hear.  I know you'd rather I say that the UK government has handled this superbly, but I'm afraid the evidence does not support that.

Kind regards,

Kim

Are you a professional writer of utter drivel or just a gifted amateur? 

Kimmy11

Posted: Tue Apr 21, 2020 5:06pm

Kimmy11

Legendary helpful member

Posts: 6872

12569 helpful points

Joined: 8 Aug 2017

Posted: Tue Apr 21, 2020 5:06pm

Ah, another BoJo/Trump supporter?  I hate to disappoint you, but I don't fit into either of your 'assessments' - and I'm not given to unqualified insults either.  Of course, it's easy to criticise from the sidelines, whilst offering no evidenced-based contribution yourself.

Regards,

Kim

aitchc1401

Posted: Tue Apr 21, 2020 5:45pm

aitchc1401

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Posts: 1914

2061 helpful points

Location: Los Dolses

Joined: 15 Mar 2018

Posted: Tue Apr 21, 2020 5:45pm

Kimmy11 wrote on Tue Apr 21, 2020 3:34pm:

What the figures tell us, Aitch, is that any one of those data sets, taken in isolation, can tell a different story (and, being humans, many will pick the set that best suits their argument).  However, my belief is that these figures only start to make sense when they're ALL built into a com...

...puter model; even then, they have to be constantly updated as they evolve.  Sophisticated algorithms are written to represent non-numercial data, i.e. processes (in this case, individual intervention strategies such as contact tracing, testing, isolation, etc.), so that the approaches taken by each country in managing the disease in their own geography can also be included in the model, for comparison. Even if we assumed that all the data by country on Worldometer is correct, it isn't sufficient information to say that the UK "is doing at least as well, if not better" than other countries, without computer modelling.

So, back to my original complaint about the UK government's approach to how they intially dealt with Covid-19: their "60% herd immunity" theory - it had nothing to do with these statistics.  It was based on assumptions about previous pandemics, even though, like the rest of the world, the UK government knew this was a "novel" coronavirus, something we had never seen before.  The WHO and countries ahead of the UK on the infection curve were saying, in particular Italy, "don't make the same mistake we did", yet they still persisted with their herd immunity theory and delayed taking the most effective action, i.e. lockdown, until computer modelling proved their initial approach to be flawed.

I'm sorry, I know this isn't what you want to hear.  I know you'd rather I say that the UK government has handled this superbly, but I'm afraid the evidence does not support that.

Kind regards,

Kim

Hi Kim,  thanks for your response, I do respect your views even if I do not fully agree with all of them.

It's not that I want to hear only good news about the UK governments handling of the situation rather a balanced view. If you look back to where I came into this thread I just pointed out that with all the negative comments being posted how come the UK is doing okay versus other countries? There are none or very few posts complementing all the good work that has gone on, with the NHS, the general public and yes the government. Just trying to balance the doom and gloom of some posts.

Rgds,

Aitch.

UKHandyMan4Hire

Posted: Tue Apr 21, 2020 7:50pm

UKHandyMan4Hire

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Joined: 22 May 2018

Posted: Tue Apr 21, 2020 7:50pm

This post that was quoted has been deleted.

This went ahead simply because it was an income generator for the tax-man and of course it was a huge commercial requirement for many business. It should not have gone ahead. Just my opinion.

UKHandyMan4Hire

Posted: Tue Apr 21, 2020 7:52pm

UKHandyMan4Hire

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Joined: 22 May 2018

Posted: Tue Apr 21, 2020 7:52pm

Regarding all your Diatribe and Keep in mind my youth, the attached is just for you!

Enjoy

Advertisement - posts continue below

Kimmy11

Posted: Tue Apr 21, 2020 8:19pm

Kimmy11

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Posts: 6872

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Joined: 8 Aug 2017

Posted: Tue Apr 21, 2020 8:19pm

aitchc1401 wrote on Tue Apr 21, 2020 5:45pm:

Hi Kim,  thanks for your response, I do respect your views even if I do not fully agree with all of them.

It's not that I want to hear only good news about the UK governments handling of the situation rather a balanced view. If you look back to where I came into this thread I just pointed out that with all the negative comments being posted how come the UK is doing okay versus other countries? There ...

...are none or very few posts complementing all the good work that has gone on, with the NHS, the general public and yes the government. Just trying to balance the doom and gloom of some posts.

Rgds,

Aitch.

Thanks Aitch.  I agree that some posts may not have been as balanced as they might have been.  However, all my posts have been evidence-based; in most instances, I've chosen to share links to source data.  Other occasions, I've deliberately given a "layman's" description of scientific and mathematic tools, because I appreciate that the source data may "turn off" some people very quickly!

I'd like to reiterate that the Covid-19 course I did last month with the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine is well worth doing.  I've previously shared a link to the re-run of the course that they've scheduled for the end of May - it will be broadly the same as the original course, updated to take account of the most current data.

In the meantime, however, I can make no apology for highlighting the failings of the UK government.  I understand the criticism of those who believe the Spanish government should have cancelled "Women's Day" celebrations on 8th March, especially as Spain's first diagnosis of Covid-19 was on 1st March (my husband and I were in Valencia when the "Fallas" was cancelled on 12th March and all other tourist attractions were closed; we returned home and self-isolated from 13th March, as Spain went into lockdown).  However, whilst the UK's first "documented" case of Covid-19 was on 29 February, they still didn't impose a "semi" lockdown until 23 March.  The reason I refer to the first UK case as "documented" is because there were much earlier cases in the UK: on 29 January, two Chinese nationals fell ill at a hotel in York and on 6 February, a British businessman in Brighton was diagnosed with the virus, after catching it in Singapore.  These cases make the UK position look even worse, but I haven't mentioned them before because I expect that there have been similar cases in the very early stages of infection in other countries.

I really hope that the UK (I have vested interests there!) and the rest of the world can turn this around sooner, rather than later.  I hope that the criticism levelled at the UK is proven wrong - the current stats suggest otherwise, but unprecedented efforts invested in testing and contact tracing may turn the current forecasts around, but it will have to be at a level (and quality) of testing that far exceeds the UK government's current aspirationsand capabilities.

Kind regards,

Kim

UKHandyMan4Hire

Posted: Wed Apr 22, 2020 11:49am

UKHandyMan4Hire

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Posts: 800

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Joined: 22 May 2018

Posted: Wed Apr 22, 2020 11:49am

This post that was quoted has been deleted.

Play nicely !

Balmer9

Posted: Wed Apr 22, 2020 7:10pm

Balmer9

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Posts: 75

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Location: Gran Alacant

Joined: 6 Jul 2019

Posted: Wed Apr 22, 2020 7:10pm

I'm just grateful that there are so many experts on here, why hasn't the UK government listened to Kim and UK handyman instead of the medical panels, the Chief scientist, Chief medical officer, and the many universities involved in these decisions.... Next time we will know. 

Malvy

Posted: Thu Apr 23, 2020 12:18am

Posts: 11

11 helpful points

Location: Catral

Joined: 30 Apr 2019

Posted: Thu Apr 23, 2020 12:18am

Think that whatever your thoughts that the daily briefings in the UK are beginning to be a waste of time, getting the statements from Raab or Hancock is almost worthless now, we know what is coming. It is getting to the stage similar to TV shows that follow the same format night after night. They never answer a single question, Hancock especially appears to be looking into the headlights and doesn't seem to know what is going on, really wish the reporters would not let them of the hook and follow up and put the boot in , they get them on the ropes then hold back, they must be fed up of never getting  a straight answer, always what is going to happen, but when will it??. Rant over.!!.

Kimmy11

Posted: Thu Apr 23, 2020 10:26am

Kimmy11

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Posts: 6872

12569 helpful points

Joined: 8 Aug 2017

Posted: Thu Apr 23, 2020 10:26am

Hi Balmer9,

Why the sarcasm?  Ignorance may be bliss in your world, but I prefer to be educated about the most significant health threat in my lifetime.  

After the first confirmed diagnosis of Covid-19 in the UK on 29th February, the UK government touted their "herd immunity" theory in the media, eventually announcing it as their strategy to tackling the disease, on 12th March and swiftly received heavy criticism from the WHO and the world's scientists for that approach. It's a mystery to me why Sir Patrick Vallance was still pushing his unproven "herd immunity" theory 2 days later - perhaps he had to toe a party line that put the economy above saving people's lives.  Vallance was made to look even more ridiculous when, only 1 day after his interview on Sky News, the government did a U-turn and Matt Hancock denied that herd immunity had ever been part of their strategy - video evidence proves otherwise.

As for "all the many universities involved in these decisions", if the UK government had taken notice of them from the start, why did more than 200 of the UK's university scientists have to write an 'open letter' to the government on 14th March, also criticising the government's approach?

I've already given links and references to all of the information I've shared on this forum, so I'm not doing it again.  The information is in the public domain and available to every one of us.  So the next time you feel the urge to criticise me, you'll have no excuse for doing so from your current state of ignorance.

Regards, 

Kim

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