Covid19 are we being told the truth - Page 3

I think you need to look a bit harder and read a lot more closely.  Interesting that you've chosen the year 2017/18; the ONS site does not state an "additional 50,100 excess winter deaths", it says "estimated", not additional.  In addition to Seasonal 'Flu, "respiratory disease" includes deaths related to Pneumonia, COPD, Emphysema, Lung Cancer, Chronic Asthma, etc.  In 2017/18, these respiratory diseases caused 34.7% of all excess winter deaths in England and Wales, i.e. 17,385 deaths.

In the year 2018/19, estimated excess winter deaths were 23,200.  Again, all respiratory disease (not just seasonal 'flu) was the greatest cause of EWD, totalling 9,500 deaths in England and Wales.

With regard to your statement, "average weekly death rates for England and Wales is around 10500 per week, during the influenza winter months of 2017/18 this rises to around 12500 / 13000 per week", did you not look at those figures and realise they were wrong?  Or were you hoping that I wouldn't notice that you've quoted the figures for TOTAL deaths, rather than deaths caused only by respiratory diseases? 

Taking the first 16 weeks of 2019, so that there is a direct correlation with the current year ONS figures for Covid-19 to 17 April 2020, total deaths from all respiratory diseases were 27,406.  So, the average weekly death rate was 1,713.  Compare the 2019 figure of 27,406 to the current Worldometer UK death figure of 21,678.  As I've already said, the government has recently admitted that latter figure doesn't include deaths outside of hospitals, but if you look at the ONS figures, which include deaths in care homes, private residences and hospices, the Covid-19 related death rate to 17 April 2020 is 28,404, and this figure doesn't include Covid-19 deaths in Scotland and Northern Ireland.  I think others may be able to understand where the FT, in an article to which I provided the link earlier, arrives at their Covid-19 death rate estimation nearer 41,000, and significantly more than the average death rate from seasonal 'flu.

By the way, I don't know why you've made the assumption that I have a "medical background", but I have noticed that when you're under pressure, you resort to snide, personal insults.  Please try to be civil in future.

Kimmy

Just as an aside, how are deaths in Spain recorded ? Is it the same as the UK ? Hospitals only (until recently).

Curious as to the death totals comparatively, has the UK fared much worse than anywhere else in Europe? 

Hi Kenbo,

I believe that Spain, like the UK and Italy, initially only reported hospital deaths, and Spain didn't start to include care home deaths until 8 April - France began including them from 3 April.  Following the ONS data release from the Care Quality Commission yesterday, the UK has said it will start to include care home deaths from today, 29 April.

You may remember last week that Belgium's figures hit the press because their death rate seemed disproportionately high compared to other European countries, but they have included deaths from Covid-19 in all settings.  This highlights the problem with the Worldometer data - it can't be used to compare countries to each other, unless the data being reported includes the same groups of population, and we know now that they don't.  Even if the UK retrospectively add into their reported data the 4,343 people who died in care homes during the 2 weeks from 10 to 24 April, how can that be compared with Spain and France, who started reporting that data earlier than the UK?

If you use Worldometer's figures to calculate a country's death rate as a proportion of their infection rate, the UK does not appear to fare well against Spain or Italy, but unless we know that all countries are reporting on the same basis, I think any comparisons using that data alone is unhelpful.

Stay safe,

Kim

Thanks for your explanation Kim.

The best way to take of yourself, is to rely on yourself rather than wait for the government to take care of you. They admitted that the reason the government does not approve of wearing a mask is because they do not have enough to go around. I had to laugh when everyone wants the government to make wearing a mask compulsory. On one hand people say that the government is nannying us, on the other hand some people want the government to be nannying. Just wear a mask if you want to. In fact I intend to wear a mask when we return to some normality. Once the traffic thickens I do not like the air pollution I must breathe. So I am usI got this time to get used to wearing a mask. I do not know how pollution undermines my immune system so I have not strong immune system when it is required. Wear masks and be extra caring for yourselves. Keep healthy Luna

Covid is serious but you are partly right the figures although high are not correct and if you think about the fact that probably 10% of the population is spain have or have had covid 19 the death rate is tiny.

The cure of lockdown is an absolute shambles, many many more people are going to die with the effects of lockdown than are of covid 19. Suicides, cancelled operations, domestic abuse etc etc.

France said it has saved 67000 people from covid 19 deaths because of the lockdown. They have lost their functioning economy, probably 200000 people will die over the next 12 months because of the effects of the lockdown. You do the maths.

Some idiot decided that lockdown is the only way, it absolutely isnt, social distancing and handwashing is what is the most important. 99.99% of people get Covid and survive.

Final point, sure the retired and board are racing to your encyclopaedias and checking these facts and figures so ill be brief. When this hits the third world countries and starts to kill hundreds of thousands because all the first world countries have no money to give in aid because they obliterated their economies will you all be as concerned then? I doubt it.

Eight time the deaths of people confirmed with Covid 19 than those who get the seasonal flu, according to the UK statistics so I presume it must be similar in Spain.

I am concerned that when we start getting back to some kind of normality in torrevieja will we be inundated with all the madrid holiday home owners here in the summer.It appears that we have handled the crises very well here and it can all be lost in a minute if its packed out again on the beaches and restaurants etc. Is there any way of controling this?

Hi Jdb 313,

I doubt the "retired and board" (sic) will be racing to their "encyclopaedias" to check these "facts and figures", because they're your personal opinion.  According to you, in France, "probably 200000 people will die over the next 12 months because of the effects of the lockdown. You do the maths."  Where's the evidence for your "probably 200000"?  What "maths"?

I agree that lockdown should not have needed to be the first intervention, but good personal hygiene and physical distancing is only part of the response.  Testing, contact tracing and monitoring should have been the priority intervention, as South Korea's successful management of the disease has shown.  Conversely, Sweden, who haven't gone into lockdown, but have not been testing at the level of South Korea, now has an infection rate that far exceeds those of all its Scandinavian neighbours that are in lockdown.  Most European countries did not have early access to reliable test kits and, even now, the UK hasn't achieved it's daily target of 100,000 tests.  Until we get the testing piece right, lifting lockdown continues to risk a second peak of infection and deaths.

As for the risk to "third world countries", there are other challenges, for example, in sub-Saharan African countries, learned from the 2014-2016 Ebola pandemic, where whole villages refused to be tested and treated, as they deferred to their witch doctors, believing that professional clinicians visiting from the CDCs were bringing the virus with them.  Throwing money at deep-rooted, cultural beliefs is likely to have little impact and certainly not in the timeframe required to contain Covid-19, especially when you consider that the virus which causes Ebola was originally discovered in 1976.

Does your jibe about bored retirees and your obvious disdain of lockdown indicate that you have a business or employment that is being significantly affected?  I have friends in similar situations, so I understand the frustration, but who are we to decide that it's OK for as many as 330,000 (source: Imperial College London) UK citizens to die, in the quest of a "herd immunity" that continues to be unproven?  Our best chance of reducing that predicted death rate is for Government to get up to speed with a robust testing regime.

Kind regards, 

Kim

Hi Kim, I read with interest.

Only (there´s always an only)

The testing, I believe, will prove numbers & may assist more as/if/when, the virus follows it´s course.

With regards to your post. Two interesting (unbiased) links (from yesterday).

Re Sweden & it´s neighbours:

 https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-why-the-nordics-are-our-best-bet-for-comparing-strategies-135344

A BBC discussion regarding,Coronavirus R0: Is this the crucial number?

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-52473523

V