Is the UK now leading Spain? - Page 2

Good morning, I didn’t think that your post was judging either country, I think that it’s important to know why cases are rising so that this can be resolved as much as possible. I have recently been to my apartment in Algorfa and felt very safe there. Probably safer than in the UK.

  I do think that the nightclubs shouldn’t have opened in Spain and wonder if this is part of the reason younger ones in Spain are testing positive. I have heard first hand that a nightclub in Torrevieja quickly became careless and allowed people to dance without masks on. I know in Ibiza nightclubs haven’t opened and they haven’t in the UK either. I think I’ve read that Spain are now closing nightclubs too so maybe they might have been better off keeping them closed a while longer. 

Doesn't this go a long way to proving that lockdowns & masks don't work?

I've been stuck in the UK all year but I know the lockdown in Spain was a "proper" one unlike the UK, but the results were much the same - both peaked before lockdown and continued to drop.

We were told here that lockdown was to "protect the NHS" (never mind that the NHS is supposed to protect us not the other way round), so what's the purpose now? Do they think they can get rid of this virus entirely? Why wasn't a 2 week lockdown (like the quarantine) enough to get rid of it? IMO that's impossible, no where in the world has got rid of it. Even if you "clean up" the local population it only needs a visitor with it to spread it again. Wrap everyone in cotton wool and what happens when you take it off - back where you started.

Of course no government (except Sweden) can admit that's the case, now that they've destroyed the economy and countless lives.

It's a virus, given that it can't be got rid off is it sensible to keep it at bay during summer whilst it's weaker?

We won't get rid of it till we have a certain level of immunity - either natural immunity through having caught it or a vacine. Clearly those who have underlying conditions should take care to stay away from it, but is it not better that the youngsters get it now, recover and then not passing it on? 

MOst of these people being tested now (certainly in the UK) are not ill, and don't even know they've got it. Yet we're imposing draconian local lockdowns because of the test results.

"Mascarillas and hand gel reduce the spread by human contact and inhalation/exhalation. It works as well as the discipline of those subject to it. It only takes one idiot to remove a mascarilla and infect five others."

Social distancing. (incl. the lockdown), frequent washing/sanitize gel etc. have seen to work. I have serious doubts & others including the policy change by the WHO, however when a mask is removed & replaced during recent relaxation of social gatherings, in the belief that many are protected that the virus only travels 1.5m-2m. being left in the open air before inhalation & touching one´s face. They are not "idiots",possibly complacent. It´s whats been told as will protect.

Masks can been reached by covid-19. whilst dangling on chins, wrists elbows & tables.

V

Hi Graeme,

No I don't think it does. Taking your points in turn:

1. UK locked down on 23rd March. The infection peak didn't occur until late April, well after lockdown not before. And I'm pretty sure Spain & Italy were the same.

2. Protecting the NHS was intended to avoid the NHS exceeding caoacity, especially in ICU, in order that it could do as you say and protect people. This worked to an extent, but all non-emergency treatment was stopped to allow it to meet the demand from Covid-19. 

3. Two weeks is estimated to be the incubation period for Covid-19 thus unless you lockdown 100% i.e. Close all borders, business and effectively quarantine the entire population (which is impossible), any lockdown has to be longer

4. All evidence to date suggests herd immunity, i.e. immunity from being infected, doesn't work. So your suggestion that the younger population catch Covid-19 to gain immunity simpley won't work.

5. Whilst it's true many people catching Covid-19 have recovered, 65,000 excess deaths, i.e. five times the normal seasonal average, have died. You may consider the measures taken are draconian, but how many deaths would have occurred without them (USA?) and how many are acceptable? 

Paul

So if lockdown worked where have all these new infections come from?

1. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8391141/Did-UKs-coronavirus-crisis-peak-lockdown.html

2. Yes I know that but why now, there is plenty capacity now, in fact they've been dismantling the nightingale hospital, strange when they still tell us to do what they said in fear of a "second wave"

3. So why lockdow for 4 months not 2 weeks properly?

4. I heard that but evidence suggests the opposite, herd immunity is just the percentage of people with antibodies. They're using plasma from recovered people as treatments, there are antibody tests and the vacines all create antibodies. If we don't get antibodies them be prepared to spend the rest of your life under the bed.

4. Regarding the excess deaths. More than half of these were in care homes, so nothing that was done re lockdown etc protected any of these. Of the rest the vast majority had underlying health conditions.

In 2017/18 there were just over 26,000 deaths in the UK from flu, total deaths 616,000

So no I don't think it's worth destroying economies, who knows how many deaths are to come from those denied other treatments for 4 months or through the loss of their livelyhoods.

Graeme,

Your post implies lockdown irradicated the virus in the UK before it was lifted. It didn't. It reduced the infection rate to around 1000 a day, then the government started to ease the restrictions. 

But if you want evidence lockdown works, look at New Zealand. They locked down very early and were clear of infections for 102 days. They have a small outbreak now after reopening their borders. 

Paul

That's not what I'm saying, I am questioning the worth of doing it. massive damage was caused by lockdowns and when people emerge they just start to catch it again, so what was the point.

New Zealand is a gret example, they were hailed as heros, till they came out from under the bed and caught it. Lockdown doesn't work.

Look at Sweden, the same sort of infection graphs without a lockdown.

Graeme,

1. The Mail article is based on a statistical model, not actual infection. As the article says, the highest recorded daily infection rate was 8000 on 8/th April. However the daily rate remained pretty flat above 6000 well into May.

2. Protect the NHS was tge government slogan at the start of tbe pandemic, it's not tge current one now

3. As I said previously it is impossible to completely lockdown a country the size of the UK. New Zealand did but their population is 4.8m; similar to greater Manchester which is now locked down 

4. I'm sorry but you're wrong. All evidence indicates post infection antibodies dissipate within a couple of months. China are reporting cases of people being reinfected

5. Yes 20,000 deaths (not excess deaths) occurred in care homes. This was because elderly patients with symptoms were discharged from hospital without being tested, and no testing was initially carried out in care homes. 

6. The average deaths from influenza in the UK between 2014/15 & 2018/19 is 17,000 a year according to PHE. Figures vary from a high of 28,300 in 2014/15 to a low of 1,692 in 20198/19. Excess deaths this year so far, i.e. above the 17k avg, stand at ~65,000

7. The measures taken have not "destroyed" the economy. Yes we face a major recession, but evidence since lockdown was eased suggests GDP is rebounding, though this will take time. So no, I don't think it's worth killing another 65,000+ people so save jobs; you can't work if you're dead?

Paul

Ray, Ever feel like your banging your head on a brick wall trying to explain things three times!!!!!