And so it begins....

Things really (not really), getting worse. They are just improving the UK "fine-tuning",trading inter-European bureaucratic communication skills.

Anything that could possibly go wrong often does – as well as a thing or two that couldn’t possibly. So, in bureaucratic jargon, when in doubt, mumble.

V

I have businesses based in the UK and EU that trade with the UK and the EU. I don't think anyone like me ever thought it was going to be "frictionless", anyone with a braincell knew there would be at the very least paperwork, but it's expected it won't be much. That's not really the issue though. As a business in the UK, if you have to do some more admin to trade with your clients in the EU you're gonna just suck it up and get on with it. But paperwork is always two way, and so to continue to do business with UK companies businesses in the EU will also need to do additional admin, and most won't, which means most will change suppliers to ones in the EU. This is a hard reality that the government are choosing not to admit/accept. If you offer a unique service/product then perhaps your EU clients will also suck it up, make the additional investment in the admin and continue to trade with you, possibly passing on some of that admin cost in demanding lower prices, but most won't, they'll just change suppliers. This is the elephant in the room that no one is talking about. I'm lucky in that I can (and am doing so) relocating my businesses out of the UK and into the EU, so other than some additional costs for this, things won't much affect me. I can do this as I don't have any infrastructure on the ground and my staff are all remote, based all over the world (mostly EU), so really for me, it's just an address change, but many, most even, businesses employ local people to work in local offices etc. and can't relocate. These guys have some very tough years ahead as they slowly lose the EU business as contracts expire and await the Uk economy growing to pick up the slack.

The most notable thing for me since the referendum is my UK business has contracted, as businesses either close up, relocate or simply cut back on all but essential expenditure. My EU business has mushroomed to the point I'm now planning a relocation for myself and my family to mainland Europe, Spain!

By the way, I've seen the brexit "discussions" on here, and I'm not for one second getting involved in those, I'm just giving a view based on the topic about trade.

Thanks Web Designer Guy, an interesting view from someone in business.  

I've been reading updates for business on the www.gov.uk website since the Government first started to produce them some 3 years ago.  Even though I'm now retired, it doesn't take much analysis to understand how bad Brexit is for many UK businesses.  At a high level, the Government's advice for business to prepare for trade outside of the EU states, 

"From 1 January 2021 you will need to make customs declarations to move goods into and out of the EU. You should:

• get an EORI number if you do not already have one
• decide how you want to make customs declarations and whether you need to get someone to deal with customs for you. "

That final sentence, "get someone to deal with customs for you" suggests a complexity and time to deal with it that will be an additional cost to business, now that we're no longer part of the EU - and that's before we're anywhere near knowing the future tariff regime.  It begs the question, will all UK business models be able to sustain these changes.

It's good to hear from someone who has experience of the Brexit effect on trade and is able to reshape their business to fend off the worst of the trading environment changes.  As you've suggested, others will not be so well placed to do so.

Kind regards, 

Kim

It, of course, all depends on the trade deal. Personally, I'm of the opinion that the UK as a whole will remain in a customs union. If the economy isn't going to collapse in the short term, there really is no other option. All this talk of adopting trade deals similar to other territories is nonsense, but Boris has to start somewhere, so it's as good a place as any. I'm not a fan of Boris, or Brexit for that matter, but I do respect the fact he is negotiating, and in a negotiation, you always start from a point as far away from the middle as you can, then you allow your opposite number to draw you in with concessions. The question is how much is the EU willing to give away to keep the UK in a customs union? Time will tell.

I really can't see us ending up in a customs union. My understanding is that it must come with regulatory alignment and an inability to strike trade deals with other countries. It's also very close to EU membership and would likely come with a membership fee which is why it has been rejected time and again by those with the pen.

The UK currently trades around the world and import/ export documentation has to be completed - I buy a few items each year from the US and the merchants offer delivery options including customs clearance. The items I buy are still significantly cheaper than buying in the EU so it's a non issue for me.

UK currently trades with the US without having any form of customs union. My belief is that we will see customs checks on the flow of good in and out of the EU on Jan 1st 2021 the challenge will be how to plan and minimise disruption. It's also likely that the UK will almost wave goods in to avoid log jams, especially in the early days, though I cannot see that happening going the other way.

You are right in your take on negotiations and I'm pretty confident that a good agreement will be reached likely overnight on Dec 31st 2020.

Perhaps I should have said, "remain in something that looks, feels and smells like a customs union, only with a different name" ;-)

As you say, any arrangement will depend on the planning and implementation, and therein lies the problem, there simply isn't the time, assuming the Dec 31st 2020 date is adhered too.

It's a really tough place to be, but I can see why Boris has put himself in this position. He's almost had no option. Without a deadline, the EU will drag its heels, you can't blame them, it's a proven tactic, they know that every day it delays the UK government gets weaker in its position. 

For all his faults, and he's many, and again I say I'm no fan, but Boris is no fool. He pretends to be a lot of the time, but he's an extremely sharp cookie who understands how politics works. He's also proven he's got the balls to call the EU's bluff, so while the discussion about how and why the UK has gotten itself into this position, he's most likely the best person to see the job done with the minimum of pain. It's just a matter of explaining to the dreamers that there will be pain, a lot of it, but democracy have to win over fear, so buckle up!

Don’t know what effect your Webb Design company will have on the U.K. economy,I would be more worried if JCB Wetherspoons Dyson Jaguar Etc Etc came out with these comments the major players but they all say the opposite to your views.

Effect my little businesses will have? Zero, of course. But 100 businesses like mine, or 500, or 1000 or 10,000? It all mounts up. I'm not going to get sucked into what appears to be the usual arguments about Brexit on this forum, I've seen them, they're not for me. I'm just giving my experience, and then discussing my views regards trade with a few who seem interested to discuss things. 

The only fact about trade and business post brexit is no one knows.

In my opinion, will the UK crash after Brexit? No of course not. I think the average hit to the economy in the medium term is estimated by those actually qualified to make such prediction, opposed to red top journalists, at 2-3% max. Business will adapt, it always does. Will the UK boom after brexit? Perhaps. It'll possibly take 5-10 years but who knows, stranger things have happened. Would the UK have been better off staying in? In my opinion yes, but the majority felt differently and I 100% respect that. I'm changing my business and living arrangements to align with my beliefs and where my own custom seems to be coming from now, we'll see what those other businesses you've mentioned do. Mr. Dyson has already made his position clear, he's relocating the entire operation to Singapore, not exactly putting his money where his mouth is, but that's his choice. As for that bloke from Weatherspoons, first and foremost he seems completely bonkers, so I'm not sure I'd quote him too much. JCB are well placed to ride out whatever Brexit dishes up, as they are well spread out over the globe. It could be argued that a collapse in the pound (not saying that will happen) would actually benefit them, but that is twisting things to suit a narrative.

But anyway, as I say, horses for courses. Everyone has to be true to themselves and their own beliefs. I'm cool with whatever people think, so long as we can all get along and not attack each other just because we see things differently.

& thinking of..........?

V