My name's Alex and this is my website all about Pinar De Campoverde in Spain. Register now for free to talk about Brexit and the EU: living, holidaying and moving to Pinar De Campoverde and much more!
Kelvin1960 wrote on Sun Mar 7, 2021 10:21pm:
Hi Mike
Yes, you and I share an interest in an old boat, and we're not even sure if we are legally permitted to drive it any more !
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When I made this original post (soon to be 2 years ago), I could never have imagined how much trouble it would stir up. I really was asking a simple question at the time (a relative was preparing to buy a home here, and had asked for my thoughts), but the thread grew legs and turned a bit nasty at some points.
The boat licences thing was unexpected, as was the military zone, but most of the other issues facing Brits were visible 2 or 3 years ago ... 90/180, high entry hurdles (the NLV visa requirements), driving licences, etc. EHIC wasn't lost (it is now GHIC), as it seemed it might be, which is of consolation to holidaymakers and holiday home owners. I have to confess that I'm unclear on whether or not UK citizens wishing to retire here will benefit from S1 healthcare in future. If this turns out to be yes, that will be the avoidance of an enormous loss. The Christmas Eve agreement was rushed, and several points are unclear to me.
I was/am a Remainer. I went on a London march, and made other contributions. But the referendum is a long way behind us now. The General Election came down to Brexit-pushing Conservatives versus "we're not really sure" Labour. The electorate made a clear choice, giving the current Cabinet free rein. I suspect that not all Conservative MPs were on the same page, but to have spoken-out would only have put them in the deselection zone.
Putting the arguments aside, and elevating the debate to the macro-level, I still can't see that alienating our closest trading partner (20 miles away) makes any economic sense when our alternatives are thousands of miles away. Transport miles cost money, so that just makes no sense. This fishing thing was always a con - a PR exercise in talking tough, that is just problematic. All UK-registered fishing boats have GPS trackers, and there is a website that tells you where they all are at any point in time. I have zero fishing industry knowledge, but even I could see that there were as many UK boats fishing in EU waters as in UK waters.
It may be some time (maybe 2-3 years) before the real trading impacts are felt. Covid is obscuring facts at the moment. The anti-Brexit brigade say UK-EU trade is down 68%, and Gove says it isn't, then the ONS rebukes Gove for using unofficial/incomplete stats. So ... we just don't know. I haven't seen stats for trading with (say) USA or Japan. If these stats are showing (say) a 50% reduction because the UK isn't selling much and Japan/USA isn't buying much because of Covid, then in simple terms that would cut the Brexit trade gap to just 18%. But we're not seeing intelligent stats like those. Anyway, even a 5% drop is 5% too much.
And "getting out from under EU Regulations" won't look so appetising when it turns into reduced statutory workplace protections, food safety standards, etc..
In the short term, the NI issue is a worry; and that is no surprise. That problem is intractable, and may well end up with a united Ireland (with so much hardship and ill-will along the way).
The alt-right is working hard to discredit Sturgeon, to try to head off a second IndyRef.
Returning to your original point about Brits being disadvantaged .... I have sympathy for those who aspired to retire here, but cannot now afford it, and this applies doubly to those who have already invested in holiday homes and now face changed circumstances. In addition, I have sympathy for those who were doing their best to get legal and compliant last year, and who have been stymied/face lots of stress due to Covid-related delays.
But that is where my supply of sympathy runs out. There is a 3rd group who have been living under the radar in Spain for ages, had years to get legal, and simply didn't do it. Perhaps they were in denial.
As I said above, most of the issues facing Brits were well understood years before 31/12/20, but they were ignored, or characterised as a tiny part of project fear, or the UK Gov't somehow forgot to mention them. I continue to be amazed at how the pro-Brexit/anti-Brexit interest groups distort facts. The latest to catch my eye (a pro-B newspaper) ... shock-horror, those nasty Spaniards are making it difficult for Brit holiday home owners ... the UK Gov't have known about it all along, and don't give a **** If I knew 2-3 years ago, then the UK Gov't (or the Civil Service advisers who they ignored) certainly knew 2-3 years ago. So the aspirations of pensioners/holiday home owners are just collateral damage in the overall scheme.
I foresee years of negotiations ahead to get to a workable set of rules; but they will still end up less favourable than being in the EU.
Trade stats from Office of National Statistics (ONS)
@thom_sampsonUK trade with EU collapsed in January according to ONS data.Much smaller falls in trade with non-EU countries Compared to previous January, for goods (excluding precious metals):EU exports: - 38% EU imports: - 16% Non-EU exports: - 8%Non-EU imports: -9%
So, corrected for Covid, trade with EU down rather a lot
