UK madness - Page 3

The U.K. decided to put the ‘herd’ at risk to promote immunity. If a child had chicken pox or TB would you send them to school, no. A contagious disease is isolated. If this is wrong, then the medics have been misguided all these years. Just my opinion, and I worry about friends and family. They are human beings not cows.

The U.K. decided to put the ‘herd’ at risk to promote immunity

That's a legitimate claim. There is no evidence, but it could be said that they know people will break the rules, and accept that, even encourage it, as it helps spreads the virus slowly.  No matter, if that is the goal, it's working.

But I'm still not hearing from anyone why they think the UK approach (regardless of their motives) is wrong and a total lockdown is right. Is there any evidence to support a total lockdown being more effective than a partial? I don't think there is. In fact, there seems to be early evidence that it's the exact opposite (Sweden).

So again, while starting to sound like a broken record... Why is the UK approach wrong and Spains right? As I've covered above, the numbers suggest total lockdown is no more effective, perhaps less, than partial. So where is the basis for the claims made above?

It´s not like a broken record, it´s reiteration I mentioned earlier this morning 

( Fri Apr 17, 2020 10:31am) regarding Sweden compared with other Scandinavian countries. It only (partially) refers to your point.

V 

You can argue about the numbers all day long but the fact remains that the only responsible approach is to do everything humanly possible to contain the virus and save lives and by that basic and simple measure the UK lockdown fails.

That isn't a fact, it's an opinion.

SARS-CoV-19 is a NOVEL coronavirus - it's dangerous to assume that it behaves like other, known coronavirus.  

As a new virus, scientists assume that EVERYONE is susceptible to infection.  The reproduction rate, known as R0, determines the number of people infected by those who already have the infection.  For example, in the early stages of what was known about the Covid-19 disease, the reproduction rate was estimated globally to be R2 to R3, i.e. for every person infected, they would pass the disease on to between 2 and 3 others, and each of those would pass it on to 2 or 3 others, and so on, resulting in the exponential infection rates we have been seeing in most countries.  The best way to prevent this from happening is to stop people from infecting each other, i.e. isolation.  Ultimately, the plan is to reduce R0 to a minus figure.

It's not possible to prove anything from the current stats, because of the different positions of each country on the infection curve and different approaches to intervention.  I would argue that the UK, having had advance sight of the disease progression in other EU countries, should have moved quicker and harder; the USA has even less excuse for its slow response.  

Also, we have recently learned that some countries have under-reported their death rates; just today, China has increased its death rate in Wuhan by 50% and the UK accepted that the figures from the ONS (Office of National Statistics) are a more accurate reflection of its death rate, because the ONS figures include deaths at care homes and private residences not included in the NHS figures.

I don't believe we will know for sure who "got it right" until the final analysis, which is a long way off; likewise, herd immunity or any level of immunity.  The UK government changed its own strategy from (unproven) herd immunity to isolation, when modelling from Imperial College showed the huge numbers of people who would potentially have to die in the UK before the government could prove (or not) their 60% herd immunity theory.

One of the very few things we presently know for certain about the virus is that preventing infection by isolation saves lives. 

In Malaysia we have been in total lockdown for 5 Weeks. Even before that most people where wearing face masks and a lot of businesses had temperature checks and hand sanitizers at the entrance to their buildings.

Uk Population 66 M.  Deaths 14576 + Care homes.  New Infections 17/04 5599.

Malaysia Population 33 m  Deaths 86.  New Infections 17/04 69.

Fact not  opinion.

Thanks for posting that. I'd not really looked too hard at that part of the world, but looking at the stats for the region, they are pretty different from most of Europe. Malaysia and its neighbours (assuming my poor geography isn't really terrible!) have similar numbers. Did they all lock-down at about the same time? Is the culture generally less "virus-spreading-friendly" or could there be biological reasons?

You said total lockdown for 5 weeks. Reading press articles from the area it's saying the lockdown started "soft", with limiting opening hours, and has been ramping up since, to a now near-total lockdown. Am I reading the wrong media websites or is that correct?

I also read that Malaysia has the highest recorded rate of arrests for lockdown violation, which says a lot! 

Thenonmads.. Be great to get your "feet-on-the-ground" experience of what is happening there?

My eldest daughter is living in Munich at the moment, she has pretty much the same lockdown conditions as we have here in the U.K. 

Germany has one of the lowest death rates in Europe. The main difference may be that Germany is doing a lot more testing of suspected covid19 cases than other countries. If you suspect you have the virus you ring the medical authories and they come to your home and test.

That's how it works in Bavaria, not sure it is Germany as a whole.

Aitch.

I have friends living in Dubai.  They're also on lockdown and have to 'book' times to go shopping on an app.  The UAE, in common with the Far East countries who suffered heavily during the 2003 SARS outbreak, is making use of technology to contain and monitor spread of Covid-19.  South Korea, lauded for its use of technology to manage Covid-19 infection, has sent more than 50,000 test kits to the UAE.  Whether this type of intervention will be proved to make a significant difference overall remains to be seen, but I think having to pre-book an appointment to do your shopping would probably be regarded as too "Big Brother" for many people in western democracies 🤔